Time to weigh in, though this will be only the first thoughts I’m sure….
It seems to be the subtext buzz in the industry these days: I hear it every time I talk to publishers, and I also hear it as questions from readers buying books and discussing books. “Can I get an e-book version?” “What do we do about e-books?” etc…
They’re coming. People want them. The eReaders are not perfect by a long shot and don’t replace the feel and smell and sense of a book (no turning it on and fumbling when you just want to pull a book down and flip randomly - though the search for a quote would be nice) but they will get better. I don’t agree that technology is the solution to everything. Personally I would love to see the book (and especially, the Novel) stay as it is. I think it is perfect. But the business around it is not. Sometimes I am looking for a quote, and I stumble upon something else, or get absorbed reading short passages I come across. I wouldn’t have that experience if I just did a search. It is like browsing for a book in a library - it may be checked out but the books all around it that you never knew of or knew to search for are all the more appealing and surprising. Ask yourself: how easy is it to just browse the internet? With Google we need to start somewhere. It is really hard to just jump in randomly, but when you do, it can be really cool what you find by taking the non-linear approach. And computers are all about being linear. I know of what I speak on this.
So is publishing, ironically. What I hear the most is publishers uncertain or scared or mystified by the new paradigm. As if they try and paste their current business model onto the new methods of distribution and promotion and can’t see how to make money to stay afloat. It is a very valid concern. But the old models will no longer work: there will be way more books out there, and most will be awful and niche. Good books (nay, all books) will need to fight all the harder to get noticed. Huge competition, market saturation. But competition is good, and creativity will rise to the top. (So will good writing). Social networks and word of mouth have never been so powerful and important. So too the electronic promotion.
Eventually, I foresee new distribution centers emerging or consolidating on the web, that will become trusted and start to re-enforce some editorial standards (just as we have now with the publishing industry). Books will be print-on-demand, but mostly downloaded as eBooks and printed on ePaper to read in hand and then get reloaded with other material to read. I(n fact, I foresee that everything will eventually re-coalesce into what we have now, but the role of the publisher will be more to do layout, editing, proofing, and presentation, and have a heavy component of e-marketing. Distribution will all but vanish. Books will be cheaper. There will be fewer super-star writers, more writers writing and holding day-jobs (not so different as now).
Online material (blogs, feeds, forums) will be prised because information will be fluid. But the need for a Novel - the quiet solitary space to dream and be moved, will always be needed. The need for story will always be there. I foresee new ways of telling stories (more on this in a later post). Payment will become far easier - so if I click to read something online, I will have 25 cents withdrawn with no fees, seamlessly. I would pay for a lot more if it was seamless.
I want to embrace eBooks, and let them expand to handle graphics and animation and sound too. I want to spread my arms open to the net and connect the story to as many people as I can in a one-on-one relationship. I want to brush aside the distribution and stocking shelves, and just focus on the message and the story and getting it into people’s hands.
Yeah. Like I said…more to come…But one thing for sure. All is changing and we must change with it, even the way we tell stories (a bit), but in the end it will be okay.